No reino das expectativas: equilibrando esperança e gestão de risco.

Onde o fato é menos importante que suas interpretações, ruído é sinal e gestão procura perfil de avaliação para carteira de estimativa.

O processo de investimento é estruturado. Primeiramente, é fundamental considerar as expectativas em relação ao destino dos recursos e o prazo desejado para alcançar os objetivos financeiros, ao mesmo tempo em que se analisa o perfil de risco pessoal.

Em seguida, surge a etapa de esperança e confiança no potencial de crescimento dos investimentos, acompanhada pela antecipação dos resultados e pela crença no planejamento financeiro estabelecido. É nesse momento de aguardo que alicerçamos nossa confiança no processo, mantendo a expectativa de colher os frutos do investimento no futuro próximo.

Expectation in Investment Management

In the sequence, two more technical activities have their place, the first is to identify the most appropriate asset classes and the second to choose which assets to select within each class. Finally, it is time to monitor the investment, to ascertain if the results achieved are within the planned and make the necessary adjustments. These steps are part of a typical investment process that starts with the client, goes through designing an asset allocation and investment plan, execution, until finally flowing into control and evaluation. The most important part is the first one, where the investor must spend a generous amount of time thinking about their life and filling out the Suitability questionnaire. All the time invested in this step is precious, just like on a vacation trip, if the destination is not well planned, the chances of achieving that desired pleasure are almost nil. However, it is not enough to define where you are going, you need to have a map and knowing which assets to buy is fundamental for the success of the endeavor, and there is no secret here, it is buying low to sell high. Simple, at least on paper. The issue is to discover what is a cheap asset, or rather, when an asset is cheap. What price would make it a bargain? However, the truth is that we will only know if it was cheap or not at the time of selling. Avoiding a discussion here about what would be the fair price of an asset by model X or Y of evaluation, from the investor’s perspective, what matters is whether they made or lost money. Therefore, each of us has an idea of price, it may even be that there is no exact value, but at least there must be something like ‘this should appreciate so much’ to the point of making sense to acquire the asset to compose the portfolio. It is clear, then, that at the time of the purchase decision, what we have is an expectation about the future that will guide the generation of estimates on which assets have greater or lesser potential for appreciation. Investment is a decision under uncertainty, and expectations play a fundamental role in any investor’s decision. The game is to look at the present and bet on the future. In this sense, the deterioration of risk asset prices in Brazil since the last Copom meeting on May 7 and 8 tells a compelling story about risk perception and expectations. In these just over 40 days, the Ibovespa fell by around 8% against an increase of about 1.5% in the MSCI EM (index that measures the average appreciation of the stock exchanges of emerging countries), while the dollar here rose by nearly 5.4% against an appreciation of just over 0.2% measured by the DXY (basket composed of currencies from various countries). Regarding the fixed income market, the IPCA Treasury rates for 2035 reached 6.4% against 6.2%. The melting of expectations can be observed through the Focus report, the comparison between what preceded the previous meeting (referring to 05/03) and this last Friday, June 14. The projected inflation for 2024 is a key factor in the evaluation of the market portfolio. The management of expectations, hope, anticipation, and trust in the investment process are crucial for success. The belief in a well-thought-out asset allocation and investment plan is what guides investors through the uncertainties of the market. Trust in the evaluation of assets and the estimation of their future performance is what sets apart a successful investment strategy. Awaiting the results and making necessary adjustments based on the changing market conditions is part of the continuous monitoring and control process in investment management. The profile of the investor, their risk appetite, and their long-term goals all play a role in shaping the investment decisions and the composition of the portfolio. The estimation of future returns, the assessment of market trends, and the identification of opportunities are all part of the ongoing process of managing an investment portfolio. The expectation of positive outcomes, the anticipation of market movements, and the belief in a well-diversified portfolio are all factors that contribute to a successful investment journey. Trust in the process, the evaluation of risks, and the management of expectations are key elements in navigating the complexities of the financial markets. The anticipation of future market conditions, the belief in a disciplined investment approach, and the trust in the expertise of financial advisors are all essential components of a successful investment strategy. Awaiting the right opportunities, managing the investment profile, and evaluating the performance of the portfolio are all integral parts of the investment management process. The belief in the long-term potential of the market, the trust in the investment strategy, and the anticipation of future returns are all aspects that drive investors towards their financial goals. Expectation, hope, anticipation, and trust are the cornerstones of a successful investment journey, guiding investors through the highs and lows of the market with confidence and resilience.

Fonte: @ Valor Invest Globo